No one polls Strathfield Council, so this is an estimate from the 2024 result and the shift in state and federal polling since. Labor's NSW state average is 30.0% now against 32.3% at the September 2024 council election, and the Coalition's 22.3% against 38.7%; federally Labor has gone from 30.8% to 26.6% and the Coalition from 37.3% to 22.4%. It assumes One Nation and the Greens, who did not stand in 2024, field tickets. Treat it as a rough guide: council votes turn on local candidates more than state or federal polling.
| Group | Est. vote | Quotas | Seats | Likely | Change on 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaborRory Nosworthy | 27.8% | 2.23 | 2 | 2 | −3.2 pts, ±0 seats |
| One Nation(did not stand in 2024) | 21.1% | 1.69 | 2 | 1–2 | new |
| LiberalJohn-Paul Baladi | 20.7% | 1.65 | 1 | 1–2 | −14.4 pts, −2 seats |
| Greens(did not stand in 2024) | 12.1% | 0.97 | 1 | 0–1 | new |
| Strathfield IndependentsMatthew Blackmore | 9.3% | 0.75 | 1 | 0–1 | −8.0 pts, ±0 seats |
| Benjamin Cai & Nella Hall Independent GroupBenjamin Cai | 8.2% | 0.65 | 0 | 0–1 | −7.0 pts, −1 seat |
| Other independentsSarath Pamidiparthi, Mario Orlovic | 0.8% | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | −0.7 pts, ±0 seats |
Quota: one-eighth of the formal vote plus one, 12.5% (2,461 votes at the 2024 turnout of 19,687 formal votes). "Quotas" is each group's estimated vote divided by the quota; whole quotas elect, and the seats left go to the largest remainders. "Likely" is the middle 80% of 1,000 simulated elections.
| Group | Lead candidate | Votes | % | Quotas | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LiberalJohn-Paul Baladi | John-Paul Baladi | 6,912 | 35.1 | 2.81 | 3 |
| LaborRory Nosworthy | Rory Nosworthy | 6,107 | 31.0 | 2.48 | 2 |
| Strathfield IndependentsMatthew Blackmore | Matthew Blackmore | 3,401 | 17.3 | 1.38 | 1 |
| Benjamin Cai & Nella Hall Independent GroupBenjamin Cai | Benjamin Cai | 2,980 | 15.1 | 1.21 | 1 |
| Other independentsSarath Pamidiparthi, Mario Orlovic | Sarath Pamidiparthi, Mario Orlovic | 287 | 1.5 | 0.12 | 0 |
14 September 2024. 19,687 formal votes, quota 2,461. Elected in order: Benjamin Cai, Matthew Blackmore, John-Paul Baladi, Rory Nosworthy, Sandy Reddy, Karen Pensabene, Esther Kim. Since the election Karen Pensabene has been suspended from Labor. Source: NSW Electoral Commission.
The starting point is each group's share of the 2024 first-preference vote. Labor's and the Liberals' shares are multiplied by the change in their polling since the 2024 council election, averaging the change in NSW state polling (Labor 32.3% to 30.0%, Coalition 38.7% to 22.3%) and in national federal polling (Labor 30.8% to 26.6%, Coalition 37.3% to 22.4%, July to September 2024 against now): a factor of 0.90 for Labor and 0.59 for the Liberals.
One Nation and the Greens did not stand in 2024, so each is given its current NSW vote (the average of its NSW state polling and the NSW breakdown of federal polling: One Nation 25.8%, Greens 12.5%) times how it did in Strathfield district at the 2023 state election relative to NSW: 0.82 for One Nation (Legislative Council 4.83% against 5.9% state-wide) and 0.97 for the Greens (9.4% against 9.7%). The independent groups that stood in 2024 share whatever is left, in proportion to their 2024 vote. With "Only the 2024 groups" switched on, One Nation and the Greens are left out and the independent groups take the rest.
Seats are filled by the Droop quota: each whole quota elects a councillor, and the remaining seats go to the groups with the largest remainders. This stands in for the count, where most votes are above the line for one group and exhaust once that group's candidates are elected or excluded. The 1,000 simulations vary the two parties' state swings and each group's local vote at random.