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Presidential runoff: Lula v Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazil

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), re-elected in the 25 Oct 2026 runoffRunoff, 25 Oct 2026: Lula 51.8%, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 48.2% (valid votes)First round, 4 Oct 2026: Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 47.0%, Lula 45.2%Next general election in 2030

Second-round polling between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, who met in the 25 October 2026 presidential runoff, which Lula won. Head-to-head match-ups published before the 4 October first round are included to show the longer trend; 54 polls are from after the first round.

Polls before 4 October 2026 were hypothetical match-ups, asked while other candidates were still in the race. Figures exclude blank, null and undecided responses, so the two shares do not sum to 100. The runoff result (25 October 2026) is shown as an event, not as a poll.

Result · 2026 runoff, 25 October 2026

Lula (PT)
51.8%
Final result
Won
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)
48.2%
Final result

Trend

Lula (PT)Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%JulyOct2026AprJulyOct2026 runoffFlávio audio leak (Banco Master)Election campaign beginsSupreme Court institutional crisisFirst roundFLÁVIO 48.4LULA 46.5
Hover or tap the chart to read the trend on any date.

Poll log

FieldworkPollsterSampleLULAFLÁVIO
25 Oct 2026Runoff: Lula re-elected (51.8%)
25 Oct 20262026 runoff result51.7948.21
23–24 Oct 2026Futura2,00047.948.2
23–24 Oct 2026Quaest3,7024546
23–24 Oct 2026Datafolha4,0504748
23–24 Oct 2026Nexus2,0004647
23–24 Oct 2026PoderData4,0004849
22–24 Oct 2026Palver5,0004950
22–24 Oct 2026Gerp2,4004649
23 Oct 2026Colectta3,00046.546
21–23 Oct 2026MDA2,0324546.3
21–23 Oct 2026Instituto França1,53743.145.1
19–23 Oct 2026Verita15,55447.849.8
18–23 Oct 2026AtlasIntel4,99048.449.9
20–22 Oct 2026Ipespe1,5004748
20–22 Oct 2026Vox Brasil2,10045.444.3
20–22 Oct 2026Datafolha2,5204647
19–22 Oct 2026Alfa2,7004649.9
19–22 Oct 2026Real Time2,0004549
18–22 Oct 2026Veritá15,55447.550.2
20–21 Oct 2026Indexa2,00044.145.2
19–21 Oct 2026Datatrends2,0004650
19–21 Oct 2026PoderData4,0004849
19–21 Oct 2026Gerp2,4004550
19–20 Oct 2026Futura2,00046.848.9
18–20 Oct 2026Palver5,0004850
17–20 Oct 2026Quaest2,1544445

Sources