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Presidential runoff: Lula v Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazil

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), re-elected in the 25 Oct 2026 runoffRunoff, 25 Oct 2026: Lula 51.8%, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 48.2% (valid votes)First round, 4 Oct 2026: Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 47.0%, Lula 45.2%Next general election in 2030

Approval and favourability

Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLula (PT)
Approval rating+5.8
52% positive · 46% negative

Hypothetical match-ups

2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v Caiado12 polls in the 60 days to 3 Oct 2026 Lula 45 · Caiado 42Lula +3.1 See this match-up over time ↓
2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v Zema12 polls in the 60 days to 3 Oct 2026 Lula 46 · Zema 38Lula +7.9 See this match-up over time ↓
2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v Santos11 polls in the 60 days to 3 Oct 2026 Lula 46 · Santos 37Lula +8.6 See this match-up over time ↓
2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v Tarcísio5 polls in the 60 days to 23 Mar 2026 Lula 45 · Tarcísio 44Tied See this match-up over time ↓
2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v Cury12 polls in the 60 days to 3 Oct 2026 Lula 45 · Cury 40Lula +5.1 See this match-up over time ↓

Match-up polling over time

LulaCaiado

Hypothetical second-round match-up polled before the 4 October 2026 first round (PSD candidate). The actual runoff is Lula v Flávio Bolsonaro. 124 polls.

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%AprJulyOct2026AprJulyOct
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Approval rating (net)

Lula

Share approving and disapproving of President Lula, from CB Consultora's (later CB Global Data) regional ranking of presidents; net is approve minus disapprove. Compiled from successive versions of Wikipedia's approval-rating list; the March and November 2025 readings are dated by month only.

−20−100+10+20AprJulyOct2026AprJuly
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Leadership poll log

FieldworkPollsterQuestionResult
2–3 Oct 2026Futura2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v CaiadoLula 44%Caiado 44.7%
30 Sep – 3 Oct 2026Palver2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v CaiadoLula 43%Caiado 42%
30 Sep – 3 Oct 2026Palver2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v ZemaLula 44%Zema 42%
30 Sep – 3 Oct 2026Palver2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v SantosLula 44%Santos 33%
30 Sep – 3 Oct 2026Palver2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v CuryLula 44%Cury 36%
29 Sep – 2 Oct 2026MDA2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v CaiadoLula 47%Caiado 37%
29 Sep – 2 Oct 2026MDA2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v ZemaLula 49%Zema 34%
29 Sep – 2 Oct 2026MDA2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v SantosLula 48%Santos 34%
29 Sep – 2 Oct 2026MDA2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v CuryLula 47%Cury 38%
29 Sep – 1 Oct 2026Vox Brasil2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v CaiadoLula 46.3%Caiado 42.1%
29 Sep – 1 Oct 2026Vox Brasil2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v CuryLula 46.8%Cury 33.1%
28–30 Sep 2026Datafolha2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v CaiadoLula 48%Caiado 42%
26–30 Sep 2026Real Time2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v CaiadoLula 45%Caiado 43%
28–30 Sep 2026Datafolha2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v ZemaLula 49%Zema 40%
26–30 Sep 2026Real Time2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v ZemaLula 45%Zema 40%
28–30 Sep 2026Datafolha2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v SantosLula 48%Santos 39%
26–30 Sep 2026Real Time2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v SantosLula 45%Santos 38%
28–30 Sep 2026Datafolha2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v CuryLula 47%Cury 42%
26–30 Sep 2026Real Time2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v CuryLula 45%Cury 44%
27–29 Sep 2026Indexa2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v CaiadoLula 43%Caiado 40%
25–29 Sep 2026Futura2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v CaiadoLula 42.4%Caiado 45.6%
27–29 Sep 2026Indexa2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v ZemaLula 43%Zema 36%
25–29 Sep 2026Futura2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v ZemaLula 45.1%Zema 42.2%
27–29 Sep 2026Indexa2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v SantosLula 44%Santos 38%
25–29 Sep 2026Futura2026 runoff hypothetical: Lula v SantosLula 44.6%Santos 40.7%

Sources