Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), leading a CDU/CSU–SPD coalitionAfD co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino ChrupallaSPD co-leaders Bärbel Bas and Lars KlingbeilNext federal election due on or before 25 March 2029
Seat predictions
Bundestag · 630 seats
No single-party majorityBundestag seats from the current average: parties on 5% or more share 630 seats by Sainte-Laguë. No pollster publishes seat projections, so this is our estimate from 10 recent polls, varied 1,000 times for polling error; ranges are the middle 80% of runs. AfD would be the largest party with about 202 seats (316 for a majority).
AfD202likely 175–220+50 on 2025 election
CDU/CSU145likely 122–164−63 on 2025 election
Greens108likely 88–126+23 on 2025 election
SPD97likely 79–115−23 on 2025 election
The Left78likely 60–94+14 on 2025 election
SSW0−1 on 2025 election
range seats majority (316)
Possible coalitions
Groupings of parties that share a broad outlook or have governed together, with their combined seats in the central estimate (chance of a majority across the 1,000 runs at right). 316 seats are needed for a majority.
"Kenya" coalition of the three centre partiesCDU/CSU + SPD + Greens35092%
likely 319–372 · 316 for a majority
The right, ruled out by the CDU/CSU's firewall against the AfDCDU/CSU + AfD34788%