likely range estimate majority (39)
| State | Held now | Estimate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up at the next election · 40 seats | |||
| New South Wales | ALP 2L/NP 3GRN 1 | ALP 2L/NP 1ONP 2GRN 1 | +2 ONP −2 L/NP |
| Victoria | ALP 2L/NP 2GRN 1OTH 1 | ALP 2L/NP 1ONP 2GRN 1 | +2 ONP −1 L/NP −1 OTH |
| Queensland | ALP 2L/NP 2ONP 1GRN 1 | ALP 2L/NP 1ONP 2GRN 1 | +1 ONP −1 L/NP |
| Western Australia | ALP 3L/NP 2GRN 1 | ALP 2L/NP 1ONP 2GRN 1 | +2 ONP −1 ALP −1 L/NP |
| South Australia | ALP 2L/NP 3GRN 1 | ALP 2L/NP 1ONP 2GRN 1 | +2 ONP −2 L/NP |
| Tasmania | ALP 2L/NP 2GRN 1OTH 1 | ALP 2L/NP 1ONP 2GRN 1 | +2 ONP −1 L/NP −1 OTH |
| ACT | ALP 1OTH 1 | ALP 1OTH 1 | No change |
| Northern Territory | ALP 1L/NP 1 | ALP 1ONP 1 | +1 ONP −1 L/NP |
| Total | ALP 15L/NP 15ONP 1GRN 6OTH 3 | ALP 14L/NP 6ONP 13GRN 6OTH 1 | +12 ONP −1 ALP −2 OTH −9 L/NP |
| Continuing members · 36 seats, elected 2025 and not up this time | |||
| New South Wales | ALP 2L/NP 2ONP 1GRN 1 | ALP 2L/NP 2ONP 1GRN 1 | Not up for election |
| Victoria | ALP 3L/NP 2GRN 1 | ALP 3L/NP 2GRN 1 | Not up for election |
| Queensland | ALP 2L/NP 2ONP 1GRN 1 | ALP 2L/NP 2ONP 1GRN 1 | Not up for election |
| Western Australia | ALP 2L/NP 2ONP 1GRN 1 | ALP 2L/NP 2ONP 1GRN 1 | Not up for election |
| South Australia | ALP 3L/NP 2GRN 1 | ALP 3L/NP 2GRN 1 | Not up for election |
| Tasmania | ALP 2L/NP 2GRN 1OTH 1 | ALP 2L/NP 2GRN 1OTH 1 | Not up for election |
| Total | ALP 14L/NP 12ONP 3GRN 6OTH 1 | ALP 14L/NP 12ONP 3GRN 6OTH 1 | Not up for election |