likely range estimate majority (47)
| Seat | Held by | Estimate | Likely 2PP | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aspley | ALP | LNP | LNP 52.747.3 ALP | 91% |
| Pine Rivers | ALP | LNP | LNP 52.247.8 ALP | 86% |
| Keppel | LNP | ONP | ONP 52.947.1 LNP | 82% |
| Rockhampton | LNP | ONP | ONP 56.443.6 ALP | 81% |
| Maryborough | LNP | ONP | ONP 53.946.1 ALP | 80% |
| Stafford | ALP | LNP | LNP 51.248.8 ALP | 76% |
| Springwood | ALP | LNP | LNP 50.949.1 ALP | 68% |
| Gaven | ALP | LNP | LNP 52.847.2 ALP | 67% |
| Mulgrave | LNP | ONP | ONP 52.147.9 LNP | 66% |
| South Brisbane | ALP | GRN | GRN 64.435.6 LNP | 64% |
| Macalister | ALP | LNP | LNP 51.148.9 ALP | 60% |
| Cairns | ALP | LNP | LNP 50.149.9 ALP | 45% |
| Bundaberg | ALP | ONP | ONP 50.849.2 ALP | 42% |
| Ipswich West | ALP | LNP | LNP 50.149.9 ALP | 40% |
| Mirani | LNP | IND | IND 50.449.6 ONP | 38% |
| Hinchinbrook | LNP | ONP | ONP 50.349.7 IND | 26% |
Seats the current holder is estimated to keep, but where the final two-candidate count is within 3 points of 50–50 (the holder on under 53%), closest first. Seats changing hands are listed above.
| Seat | Held by | Likely 2PP | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Logan | ALP | ALP 50.149.9 LNP | 56% |
| Lytton | ALP | ALP 50.349.7 LNP | 55% |
| Hervey Bay | LNP | LNP 51.248.8 ONP | 65% |
| Mansfield | ALP | ALP 52.048.0 LNP | 85% |
| Kurwongbah | ALP | ALP 52.347.7 LNP | 86% |
| Gladstone | ALP | ALP 52.447.6 ONP | 82% |
| Bancroft | ALP | ALP 52.647.4 LNP | 90% |