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State election polling · TAS

Tasmania

Premier Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal, minority)Opposition Leader Josh Willie (Labor)Due by 2029

Tasmania elects multi-member electorates by Hare-Clark, so pollsters do not publish a two-party preferred figure. EMRS figures from 2010 to 2014 include undecided voters, so they add up to less than 100.

If an election were held today

House of Assembly · 35 seats
Hung parliament very likelyLiberal would be the largest party with about 13 seats. Labor wins a majority in 0% of simulations, Liberal wins a majority in 0% of simulations; no party does in 100%.
35seats · 18 for a majority
Liberal13likely 12–14−1 on 2025
Labor10likely 10–11no change on 2025
Greens7likely 6–8+2 on 2025
Independents & others5likely 4–5−1 on 2025

likely range estimate majority (18)