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Presidential runoff: Lula v Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazil

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), re-elected in the 25 Oct 2026 runoffRunoff, 25 Oct 2026: Lula 51.8%, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 48.2% (valid votes)First round, 4 Oct 2026: Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 47.0%, Lula 45.2%Next general election in 2030

Seat predictions

Federal Senate · 81 seats
Current Federal SenateSenate composition after the 4 October 2026 election, in which 54 of the 81 seats were filled, from Wikipedia. No projections apply until the next election.
81seats · 41 for a majority
PL29
PT9
MDB8
Progressistas6
Republicanos6
PSD5
União Brasil5
PSB4
Novo3
PSDB2
Podemos2
REDE1
PDT1

seats majority (41)

Possible coalitions

Groupings of parties that share a broad outlook or have governed together, with their combined seats in the current chamber. 41 seats are needed for a majority.

The right with the CentrãoPL + Novo + MDB + PSD + Podemos + Progressistas + União Brasil + Republicanos + PSDB66Majority
The left with the centre-right "Centrão" partiesPT + REDE + PSB + PDT + MDB + PSD + Podemos + Progressistas + União Brasil + Republicanos + PSDB49Majority
The "Centrão": centre and centre-right partiesMDB + PSD + Podemos + Progressistas + União Brasil + Republicanos + PSDB347 short
The right: Bolsonaro's PL and NovoPL + Novo329 short
The left: Lula's PT and alliesPT + REDE + PSB + PDT1526 short

Sources