No bloc has a clear path to a majorityOn the current party vote average, National, ACT and NZ First keep a majority in 38% of 1,000 simulated elections and Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori win one in 10%. In the other 52%, neither bloc can govern alone.
National + ACT + NZ First + Opportunity6787%
67 of 122 seats in the central estimate · likely 61–70 · 62 for a majority Labour + Greens + Te Pāti Māori + Opportunity6256%
62 of 122 seats in the central estimate · likely 57–67 · 62 for a majority National + ACT + NZ FirstThe current government6038%
60 of 122 seats in the central estimate · likely 55–65 · 62 for a majority Labour + Greens + Opportunity5821%
58 of 122 seats in the central estimate · likely 53–63 · 62 for a majority Labour + Greens + Te Pāti MāoriThe main opposition parties5510%
55 of 122 seats in the central estimate · likely 51–61 · 62 for a majority Labour + Greens511%
51 of 122 seats in the central estimate · likely 48–57 · 62 for a majority National + NZ First480%
48 of 122 seats in the central estimate · likely 44–53 · 62 for a majority National + ACT470%
47 of 122 seats in the central estimate · likely 42–52 · 62 for a majority National + LabourA grand coalition, shown for comparison6899%
68 of 122 seats in the central estimate · likely 65–75 · 62 for a majority majority line · chance = share of 1,000 simulations in which the parties together hold a majority of the House