likely range estimate majority (62)
A party below 5% of the party vote still gets list seats if it wins an electorate, and a party that wins more electorates than its party vote entitles it to keeps them as overhang seats. These are the electorates where that is in play.
| Electorate | Favoured | Lead | Basis | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiariki | TPM | 32 pts over LAB | Electorate poll, 21 Sep – 1 Oct 2026 (Whakaata Māori–Curia) | 100% |
| Hauraki-Waikato | TPM | 23 pts over LAB | Electorate poll, 21 Sep – 1 Oct 2026 (Whakaata Māori–Curia) | 99% |
| Te Tai Hauāuru | TPM | 12 pts over LAB | Electorate poll, 14–24 Sep 2026 (Whakaata Māori–Curia) | 88% |
| Tāmaki Makaurau | TPM | 2 pts over LAB | Electorate poll, 5–15 Oct 2026 (Whakaata Māori–Curia): TPM 36, Labour 34, Greens 23. Mata–Horizon (25 Sep – 9 Oct) had Labour 38, TPM 30 | 58% |
| Te Tai Tokerau | GRN | 6 pts over LAB | Electorate poll, 5–15 Oct 2026 (Whakaata Māori–Curia): Greens 24, Labour 18, TPM 17, Te Tai Tokerau Party 12. Mata–Horizon (25 Sep – 9 Oct) had Labour 27, Greens 23 | 73% |
| Te Tai Tonga | LAB | 15 pts over TPM | Electorate poll, 14–24 Sep 2026 (Whakaata Māori–Curia); the Greens and Tākuta Ferris (independent) are close behind TPM | 93% |
| Ikaroa-Rāwhiti | LAB | 21 pts over TPM | Electorate poll, 28 Sep – 8 Oct 2026 (Whakaata Māori–Curia) | 98% |
| Epsom | ACT | 20.3 pts over NAT | No poll: 2023 result | 91% |