← Back to overview
Westminster voting intention

United Kingdom

Prime Minister Andy Burnham (Labour), since July 2026Conservative leader Kemi BadenochReform UK leader Nigel FarageGreen (England and Wales) leader Zack PolanskiNext general election due no later than 15 August 2029

Seat predictions

House of Commons · 650 seats
Labour majorityLatest projection: Electoral Calculus/Find Out Now (PLMR), 25 Sep - 2 Oct 2026. Labour would be the largest group with 344 seats; 326 are needed for a majority. Ranges show the lowest and highest of the 7 projections in the 90 days to 2 Oct 2026. Published MRP (and JL Partners POLARIS) seat projections not accounting for tactical voting, from Wikipedia's page "Seat projections for the next United Kingdom general election". They cover Great Britain's 632 seats; Northern Ireland's 18 appear only where the pollster assigned them.
650seats · 326 for a majority
Labour344likely 197–344−67 on 2024 election
Reform UK86likely 86–227+81 on 2024 election
Conservative85likely 71–145−36 on 2024 election
Liberal Democrats69likely 53–72−3 on 2024 election
SNP38likely 25–46+29 on 2024 election
Others9likely 1–9+3 on 2024 election
Plaid Cymru5likely 5–15+1 on 2024 election
Green4likely 3–9no change on 2024 election
Restore Britain1+1 on 2024 election
Northern Ireland parties0−18 on 2024 election

range seats majority (326)

Published projections

DateSourceFieldworkGreenLabourSNPPlaid CymruLiberal DemocratsOthersNorthern Ireland partiesConservativeReform UKRestore Britain
2 Oct 2026Electoral Calculus/Find Out Now (PLMR)25 Sep - 2 Oct 20264344385699—85861
21 Sept 2026More in Common21 Aug – 21 Sep 20263250276639—1251471
18 Sept 2026YouGov23 Aug – 18 Sep 202692414015713—130123—
11 Sept 2026Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now (Restore Britain)4–11 Sep 20267261316531—1451271
4 Sept 2026Survation (38 Degrees)20 Aug – 4 Sep 20263272408691—86153—
30 July 2026Convergent Opinion25–30 Jul 20267245258677—99174—
27 July 2026Survation (Hope not Hate)22–27 Jul 20264197469725—71227—
30 June 2026Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now (PLMR)23–30 Jun 202630195393713—1241661
28 June 2026More in Common5–28 Jun 2026101103796610—96293—
7 Apr 2026Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now (PLMR)27 Mar – 7 Apr 202671774513575—90273—
30 Mar 2026More in Common (The Times)1–30 Mar 2026221012656210—81324—
16 Dec 2025More in Common (The Times)27 Nov – 16 Dec 2025985405356—70381—
8 Dec 2025Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now (PLMR)1–8 Dec 20255230414564—47398—
26 Sept 2025YouGov31 Aug – 24 Sep 20257144376783—45311—
18 Sept 2025Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now (PLMR)10–18 Sep 2025673415420—7445—
15 Sept 2025More in Common (The Times)9 Aug – 15 Sep 20256903446914—41373—
1 Sept 2025Survation (38 Degrees)21 Aug – 1 Sep 20256191302635—42293—
3 Aug 2025Stack Data Strategy (Conservative Party (alleged))16 Jul – 3 Aug 20253161374632—14348—
30 June 2025More in Common13–30 Jun 20257126424738—81290—
18 June 2025YouGov29 May – 18 Jun 20257178387813—46271—
17 June 2025Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now (PLMR)10–17 Jun 20254118264695—29377—
1 Apr 2025More in Common14 Mar – 1 Apr 202541653556710—165180—
31 Mar 2025JL Partners – POLARISMar 202552184137021—136135—
28 Mar 2025Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now (PLMR)21–28 Mar 20254180304495—133227—
31 Jan 2025JL Partners – POLARISJan 202572004247017—190102—
29 Jan 2025Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now (PLMR)22–29 Jan 20254174372575—178175—
5 Jan 2025Focaldata (Hope not Hate)30 Nov 2024 – 5 Jan 202542872246313—16376—
31 Dec 2024JL Partners – POLARISDec 20245256646616—20871—
16 Dec 2024More in Common31 Oct – 16 Dec 202422283745881822272—
9 Dec 2024Stonehaven6–9 Dec 2024327824247118157120—
2024 election result441194726181215—

Sources