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Generic congressional ballot (polling averages)

United States

President Donald Trump (Republican)Republicans control the House (Speaker Mike Johnson) and the SenateHouse Democratic leader Hakeem JeffriesMidterm elections on 3 November 2026

Approval and favourability

Donald TrumpRepublican
Approval rating−29
34% positive · 64% negative

Hypothetical match-ups

2028 presidential election: Newsom v Vance2 polls in the 60 days to 4 Oct 2026 Newsom 48 · Vance 43Newsom +4.5 See this match-up over time ↓
2028 presidential election: Harris v Vance2 polls in the 60 days to 17 Aug 2026 Harris 49 · Vance 44Harris +4.5 See this match-up over time ↓
2028 presidential election: Ocasio-Cortez v Vance3 polls in the 60 days to 4 Oct 2026 Vance 44 · Ocasio-Cortez 44Vance +0.7 See this match-up over time ↓
2028 presidential election: Newsom v Rubio2 polls in the 60 days to 4 Oct 2026 Newsom 46 · Rubio 44Newsom +2.0 See this match-up over time ↓
2028 presidential election: Buttigieg v Vance1 poll in the 60 days to 17 Aug 2026 Buttigieg 49 · Vance 44Buttigieg +5.0 See this match-up over time ↓
2028 presidential election: Harris v Rubio2 polls in the 60 days to 17 Aug 2026 Rubio 45 · Harris 45Tied See this match-up over time ↓
2028 Democratic primary12 polls in the 60 days to 19 Oct 2026 Harris 26 · Newsom 14 · Buttigieg 12Harris +11.3 See this match-up over time ↓
2028 Republican primary10 polls in the 60 days to 19 Oct 2026 Vance 40 · Rubio 20 · Trump Jr. 11Vance +19.8 See this match-up over time ↓

Match-up polling over time

VanceNewsom

Hypothetical 2028 general election match-up, nationwide 18 polls.

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2025AprJulyOct2026AprJulyOct
Hover or tap the chart to read it.

Approval rating (net)

Trump

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

−50−30−10+10+30+50AprJulyOct2026AprJulyOct
Hover or tap the chart to read it.

Leadership poll log

FieldworkPollsterQuestionResult
16–20 Oct 2026American Research InstituteApproval ratingTrump 29/67 (−38)
16–20 Oct 2026Financial Times/FocaldataApproval ratingTrump 34/59 (−25)
16–20 Oct 2026Strength in Numbers/VerasightApproval ratingTrump 34/62 (−28)
16–19 Oct 2026Reuters/IpsosApproval ratingTrump 31/66 (−35)
12–19 Oct 2026New York Times/Siena CollegeApproval ratingTrump 34/60 (−26)
15–19 Oct 2026Echelon Insights2028 Democratic primaryButtigieg 13%Harris 19%Kelly 7%Newsom 14%Ocasio-Cortez 13%Shapiro 4%
15–19 Oct 2026Echelon Insights2028 Republican primaryCruz 4%DeSantis 12%Kennedy 2%Rubio 20%Trump Jr. 7%Vance 38%
15–18 Oct 2026CNN/SSRSApproval ratingTrump 32/67 (−35)
9–13 Oct 2026Washington Post/ABC News/IpsosApproval ratingTrump 33/66 (−33)
9–12 Oct 2026Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company ResearchApproval ratingTrump 36/64 (−28)
8–12 Oct 2026AP NORCApproval ratingTrump 36/64 (−28)
28 Sep – 12 Oct 2026NBC News/Survey MonkeyApproval ratingTrump 34/66 (−32)
5–7 Oct 2026Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square2028 Democratic primaryButtigieg 10%Harris 29%Kelly 6%Newsom 14%Ocasio-Cortez 9%Shapiro 5%
5–7 Oct 2026Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square2028 Republican primaryCruz 5%DeSantis 8%Rubio 18%Vance 44%
30 Sep – 5 Oct 2026Navigator ResearchApproval ratingTrump 36/62 (−26)
30 Sep – 5 Oct 2026Reuters/IpsosApproval ratingTrump 32/65 (−33)
2–5 Oct 2026Focaldata/Financial Times2028 Republican primaryCruz 2%DeSantis 9%Kennedy 4%Rubio 24%Trump Jr. 7%Vance 38%
2–4 Oct 2026Financial Times/FocaldataApproval ratingTrump 34/59 (−25)
28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026Pew Research CenterApproval ratingTrump 30/68 (−38)
2–4 Oct 2026UMass Lowell/YouGov2028 presidential election: Newsom v VanceVance 42%Newsom 46%
2–4 Oct 2026UMass Lowell/YouGov2028 presidential election: Ocasio-Cortez v VanceVance 42%Ocasio-Cortez 45%
2–4 Oct 2026UMass Lowell/YouGov2028 presidential election: Newsom v RubioRubio 42%Newsom 44%
26 Sep – 1 Oct 2026Centerline Research & StrategyApproval ratingTrump 35/64 (−29)
21–29 Sep 2026Napolitan News/RMG ResearchApproval ratingTrump 41/58 (−17)
24–28 Sep 2026AP/NORCApproval ratingTrump 31/69 (−38)

Sources