State election polling · SA

South Australia

Premier Peter Malinauskas (Labor)Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn (Liberal)Next election 16 March 2030

One Nation outpolls the Liberals in South Australia, so pollsters publish a Labor v One Nation two-party count. The 2026 election 2PP (55.7) is Antony Green's Labor v non-Labor estimate.

If an election were held today

House of Assembly · 47 seats

Labor majority very likelyLabor would be the largest party with about 36 seats. Labor wins a majority in 100% of simulations, Liberal wins a majority in 0% of simulations; no party does in 0%. Labor v One Nation: 60.3–39.8.

Labor36likely 35–37+2 on 2026

One Nation5likely 3–6+1 on 2026

Liberal4likely 2–6−1 on 2026

Independents & others2likely 2–2−2 on 2026

likely range estimate majority (24)

Seats changing hands

Seat	Held by	Estimate	Likely 2PP	Chance
Heysen	LIB	ALP	ALP 53.146.9 LIB	88%
Kavel	IND	ALP	ALP 56.143.9 IND	83%
Finniss	IND	LIB	LIB 56.743.3 ALP	73%
Chaffey	LIB	ONP	ONP 50.349.7 LIB	58%

Close races

Seats the current holder is estimated to keep, but where the final two-candidate count is within 3 points of 50–50 (the holder on under 53%), closest first. Seats changing hands are listed above.

Seat	Held by	Likely 2PP	Chance
Hammond	ONP	ONP 51.748.3 ALP	64%
Flinders	LIB	LIB 52.048.0 ONP	79%
Morphett	ALP	ALP 52.747.3 LIB	87%