State election polling · SA

South Australia

Premier Peter Malinauskas (Labor)Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn (Liberal)Next election 16 March 2030

One Nation outpolls the Liberals in South Australia, so pollsters publish a Labor v One Nation two-party count. The 2026 election 2PP (55.7) is Antony Green's Labor v non-Labor estimate.

If an election were held today

Legislative Council · 11 of 22 seats up for election

No party majorityLabor and the Greens together: about 12 seats, a majority in 95% of simulations. Liberal and One Nation together: about 10, a majority in 0%. 12 seats needed for a majority.

Labor10likely 9–10no change

One Nation6likely 6–6+2 on current

Liberal4likely 4–4−2 on current

Greens2likely 2–3no change

likely range estimate majority (12)

Seats changing hands

Contest	Held now	Estimate	Change
South Australia	ALP 5LIB 4ONP 1GRN 1	ALP 5LIB 2ONP 3GRN 1	+2 ONP −2 LIB
Continuing memberselected 2026, not up this time	ALP 5LIB 2ONP 3GRN 1	ALP 5LIB 2ONP 3GRN 1	Not up for election