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Generic congressional ballot (polling averages)

United States

President Donald Trump (Republican)Republicans control the House (Speaker Mike Johnson) and the SenateHouse Democratic leader Hakeem JeffriesMidterm elections on 3 November 2026

Seat predictions

Senate · 100 seats
Too close to call: 4 toss-ups decide control (Democratic need 2 of them; Republican need 4 of them)Latest projection: Decision Desk HQ, Ratings as of 22 Oct 2026. Democratic would be the largest group with 49 seats; 51 are needed for a majority. 4 seats are rated toss-ups. Ranges show the lowest and highest of the 26 projections in the 90 days to 22 Oct 2026. Forecasters' ratings for the 35 Senate seats up on 3 November 2026, as tallied in the "Overall" row of Wikipedia's Senate predictions table: seats rated safe, likely, lean or tilt for each party plus the 65 seats not up are summed, with toss-ups kept separate. Democratic totals include the two independents who caucus with them. With 50 seats each, the Vice President (a Republican) breaks ties.
100seats · 51 for a majority
Democratic49likely 46–53+2 on 2024 election
Republican47likely 46–48−6 on 2024 election
Toss-up4likely 1–8+4 on 2024 election

range seats majority (51)

Published projections

DateSourceFieldworkDemocraticToss-upRepublican
22 Oct 2026Decision Desk HQRatings as of 22 Oct 202649447
22 Oct 2026FiftyPlusOneRatings as of 22 Oct 202651346
22 Oct 2026NBC NewsRatings as of 22 Oct 202649546
22 Oct 2026Split TicketRatings as of 22 Oct 202652147
21 Oct 2026Silver BulletinRatings as of 21 Oct 202653146
20 Oct 2026Cook Political ReportRatings as of 20 Oct 202647746
20 Oct 2026Decision Desk HQRatings as of 20 Oct 202649447
20 Oct 2026The EconomistRatings as of 20 Oct 202650347
20 Oct 2026FiftyPlusOneRatings as of 20 Oct 202651346
20 Oct 2026Fox NewsRatings as of 20 Oct 202647647
20 Oct 2026NBC NewsRatings as of 20 Oct 202649546
20 Oct 2026Silver BulletinRatings as of 20 Oct 202652246
20 Oct 2026Split TicketRatings as of 20 Oct 202652147
19 Oct 2026NBC NewsRatings as of 19 Oct 202649447
18 Oct 2026Split TicketRatings as of 18 Oct 202652246
17 Oct 2026FiftyPlusOneRatings as of 17 Oct 202651346
15 Oct 2026Decision Desk HQRatings as of 15 Oct 202649447
15 Oct 2026The EconomistRatings as of 15 Oct 202650347
15 Oct 2026FiftyPlusOneRatings as of 15 Oct 202651346
15 Oct 2026Inside ElectionsRatings as of 15 Oct 202648448
15 Oct 2026Silver BulletinRatings as of 15 Oct 202652246
14 Oct 2026Sabato's Crystal BallRatings as of 14 Oct 202649546
14 Oct 2026Split TicketRatings as of 14 Oct 202652246
13 Oct 2026Fox NewsRatings as of 13 Oct 202647647
12 Oct 2026RealClearPoliticsRatings as of 12 Oct 202646846
6 Oct 2026Cook Political ReportRatings as of 6 Oct 202647746
2024 election result47—53

Sources