State election polling · NSW

New South Wales

Premier Chris Minns (Labor)Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane (Liberal)Next election 27 March 2027

Most pollsters did not report One Nation separately in NSW until 2026; before then it is counted in Others.

If an election were held today

Legislative Assembly · 93 seats

Hung parliament likelyLabor would be the largest party with about 44 seats. Labor wins a majority in 41% of simulations, Coalition wins a majority in 0% of simulations; no party does in 59%. Two-party preferred: Labor 55.4, Coalition 44.6. Labor v One Nation: 54.4–45.6.

Labor44likely 42–50−1 on 2023

One Nation17likely 8–21+17 on 2023

Liberal15likely 12–19−10 on 2023

Independents & others8likely 7–9−1 on 2023

Nationals6likely 5–10−5 on 2023

Greens3likely 2–3no change on 2023

likely range estimate majority (47)

Seats changing hands

Seat	Held by	Estimate	Likely 2PP	Chance
Camden	ALP	ONP	ONP 61.039.0 ALP	100%
Wollondilly	IND	ONP	ONP 65.134.9 IND	100%
Upper Hunter	NAT	ONP	ONP 57.242.8 ALP	97%
Hawkesbury	LIB	ONP	ONP 54.945.1 LIB	91%
Ryde	LIB	ALP	ALP 52.547.5 LIB	89%
Cessnock	ALP	ONP	ONP 53.146.9 ALP	80%
Wyong	ALP	ONP	ONP 53.047.0 ALP	76%
Myall Lakes	NAT	ONP	ONP 52.247.8 NAT	71%
Goulburn	LIB	ONP	ONP 51.948.1 ALP	68%
Oatley	LIB	ALP	ALP 50.949.1 LIB	66%
Port Stephens	ALP	ONP	ONP 51.648.4 ALP	65%
Kiama	ALP	ONP	ONP 51.248.8 ALP	65%
Drummoyne	LIB	ALP	ALP 50.749.3 LIB	65%
Terrigal	LIB	ALP	ALP 50.749.3 LIB	63%
Penrith	ALP	ONP	ONP 51.049.0 ALP	61%
Hornsby	LIB	ONP	ONP 52.547.5 ALP	61%
Clarence	NAT	ONP	ONP 50.249.8 NAT	55%
Oxley	NAT	ONP	ONP 51.748.3 NAT	52%
Winston Hills	LIB	ALP	ALP 50.249.8 LIB	52%
Holsworthy	LIB	ONP	ONP 50.549.5 ALP	50%
Tamworth	NAT	ONP	ONP 50.249.8 NAT	50%
Campbelltown	ALP	ONP	ONP 50.349.7 ALP	47%

Close races

Seats the current holder is estimated to keep, but where the final two-candidate count is within 3 points of 50–50 (the holder on under 53%), closest first. Seats changing hands are listed above.

Seat	Held by	Likely 2PP	Chance
Badgerys Creek	LIB	LIB 50.149.9 ONP	54%
South Coast	ALP	ALP 50.449.6 ONP	58%
Miranda	LIB	LIB 50.749.3 ALP	45%
Epping	LIB	LIB 50.949.1 ALP	66%
Willoughby	LIB	LIB 51.748.3 IND	77%
Tweed	NAT	NAT 52.147.9 ALP	56%
Balmain	GRN	GRN 52.147.9 ALP	75%