State election polling · NSW

New South Wales

Premier Chris Minns (Labor)Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane (Liberal)Next election 27 March 2027

Most pollsters did not report One Nation separately in NSW until 2026; before then it is counted in Others.

If an election were held today

Legislative Council · 21 of 42 seats up for election

No party majorityLabor and the Greens together: about 20 seats, a majority in 0% of simulations. Coalition and One Nation together: about 19, a majority in 0%. 22 seats needed for a majority.

Labor15likely 14–15no change

Coalition11likely 10–11−4 on current

One Nation8likely 7–8+5 on current

Greens5likely 4–5+1 on current

Independents & others3likely 3–4−2 on current

likely range estimate majority (22)

Seats changing hands

Contest	Held now	Estimate	Change
New South Wales	ALP 7L/NP 8ONP 2GRN 2OTH 2	ALP 7L/NP 4ONP 7GRN 3	+5 ONP +1 GRN −2 OTH −4 L/NP
Continuing memberselected 2023, not up this time	ALP 8L/NP 7ONP 1GRN 2OTH 3	ALP 8L/NP 7ONP 1GRN 2OTH 3	Not up for election