State election polling · VIC

Victoria

Premier Ben Carroll (Labor)Opposition Leader Jess Wilson (Liberal)Next election 28 November 2026

Pollsters did not report One Nation separately in Victoria until 2026; before then it is counted in Others.

If an election were held today

Legislative Assembly · 88 seats

Coalition majority likelyCoalition would be the largest group with about 48 seats. Labor wins a majority in 1% of simulations, Coalition wins a majority in 68% of simulations; no party does in 32%. Two-party preferred: Labor 44.3, Coalition 55.7. Labor v One Nation: 54.8–45.3.

Liberal41likely 34–47+22 on 2022

Labor30likely 23–36−26 on 2022

Nationals7likely 6–8−2 on 2022

One Nation6likely 2–12+6 on 2022

Greens4likely 2–5no change on 2022

Independents & others0likely 0–1no change on 2022

likely range estimate majority (45)

Seat polls

Seats	Pollster	Fieldwork	Result
Bass, Hastings, Morwell, Pakenham	Roy Morgan (SMS, 283)	21–26 Oct 2026	Bass: Liberal ahead of Labor; Hastings: One Nation ahead of Liberal; Morwell: One Nation ahead of Labor; Pakenham: One Nation ahead of Labor. Hastings, Morwell & Pakenham together: One Nation 39, Coalition 24, Labor 20, others 9, Greens 8

Where a poll publishes a vote for its seats, the estimate for those seats is moved part of the way towards it (about a third for a 283-person poll), keeping the differences between the seats. Polls older than 90 days are not used.

Seats changing hands

Seat	Held by	Estimate	Likely 2PP	Chance
Morwell	NAT	ONP	ONP 61.039.0 NAT	100%
Glen Waverley	ALP	LIB	LIB 57.043.0 ALP	100%
Hastings	ALP	LIB	LIB 58.641.4 ALP	97%
Bass	ALP	LIB	LIB 61.039.0 ALP	94%
Ashwood	ALP	LIB	LIB 52.947.1 ALP	94%
Pakenham	ALP	ONP	ONP 56.044.0 ALP	94%
Eureka	ALP	LIB	LIB 53.346.7 ALP	91%
Bayswater	ALP	LIB	LIB 56.543.5 ALP	89%
Bentleigh	ALP	LIB	LIB 52.547.5 ALP	89%
Box Hill	ALP	LIB	LIB 52.747.3 ALP	87%
Niddrie	ALP	LIB	LIB 54.445.6 ALP	85%
Monbulk	ALP	LIB	LIB 52.647.4 ALP	85%
Ringwood	IND	LIB	LIB 51.848.2 ALP	84%
Bellarine	ALP	LIB	LIB 52.247.8 ALP	83%
Ripon	ALP	LIB	LIB 58.042.0 ALP	83%
Mordialloc	ALP	LIB	LIB 52.247.8 ALP	78%
Yan Yean	ALP	LIB	LIB 56.543.5 ALP	74%
Frankston	ALP	LIB	LIB 51.448.6 ALP	71%
Eltham	ALP	LIB	LIB 51.348.7 ALP	70%
Prahran	LIB	GRN	GRN 64.235.8 LIB	64%
Melton	ALP	ONP	ONP 51.049.0 ALP	63%
Sunbury	ALP	LIB	LIB 54.745.3 ALP	63%
Macedon	ALP	LIB	LIB 51.848.2 ALP	62%
South Barwon	IND	LIB	LIB 50.749.3 ALP	60%
Mulgrave	ALP	ONP	ONP 51.148.9 ALP	51%
Clarinda	ALP	LIB	LIB 51.348.7 ALP	50%
Werribee	ALP	ONP	ONP 51.548.5 ALP	50%
Carrum	ALP	LIB	LIB 50.849.2 ALP	42%
Mildura	NAT	ONP	ONP 50.349.7 IND	36%

Close races

Seats the current holder is estimated to keep, but where the final two-candidate count is within 3 points of 50–50 (the holder on under 53%), closest first. Seats changing hands are listed above.

Seat	Held by	Likely 2PP	Chance
Wendouree	ALP	ALP 50.849.2 LIB	67%
Greenvale	ALP	ALP 51.049.0 ONP	49%
Bendigo East	ALP	ALP 51.448.6 ONP	64%
Sydenham	ALP	ALP 51.648.4 ONP	40%
Point Cook	ALP	ALP 51.648.4 ONP	48%
Albert Park	ALP	ALP 51.748.3 LIB	69%
Essendon	ALP	ALP 51.848.2 LIB	75%
Cranbourne	ALP	ALP 52.447.6 ONP	62%
St Albans	ALP	ALP 52.547.5 ONP	57%
Bundoora	ALP	ALP 52.647.4 LIB	89%
Kororoit	ALP	ALP 52.647.4 ONP	72%
Williamstown	ALP	ALP 52.747.3 LIB	89%