← Back to overview
State election polling · VIC

Victoria

Premier Ben Carroll (Labor)Opposition Leader Jess Wilson (Liberal)Next election 28 November 2026

Pollsters did not report One Nation separately in Victoria until 2026; before then it is counted in Others.

If an election were held today

Legislative Council · all 40 seats up for election
No party majorityLabor and the Greens together: about 18 seats, a majority in 1% of simulations. Coalition and One Nation together: about 22, a majority in 92%. 21 seats needed for a majority.
40seats · 21 for a majority
Coalition12likely 11–13−2 on current
Labor10likely 8–11−5 on current
One Nation10likely 8–14+9 on current
Greens8likely 5–9+4 on current
Independents & others0likely 0–0−6 on current

likely range estimate majority (21)

Seats changing hands

RegionHeld nowEstimateChange
Eastern Victoria
ALP 2L/NP 2OTH 1
ALP 1L/NP 2ONP 1GRN 1
+1 ONP +1 GRN −1 ALP −1 OTH
North-Eastern Metropolitan
ALP 2L/NP 2GRN 1
ALP 1L/NP 2ONP 1GRN 1
+1 ONP −1 ALP
Northern Metropolitan
ALP 2L/NP 1GRN 1OTH 1
ALP 1L/NP 1ONP 2GRN 1
+2 ONP −1 ALP −1 OTH
Northern Victoria
ALP 1L/NP 2ONP 1OTH 1
ALP 1L/NP 2ONP 1GRN 1
+1 GRN −1 OTH
South-Eastern Metropolitan
ALP 2L/NP 1OTH 2
ALP 2L/NP 1ONP 1GRN 1
+1 ONP +1 GRN −2 OTH
Southern Metropolitan
ALP 2L/NP 2GRN 1
ALP 1L/NP 2ONP 1GRN 1
+1 ONP −1 ALP
Western Metropolitan
ALP 2L/NP 2OTH 1
ALP 2L/NP 1ONP 1GRN 1
+1 ONP +1 GRN −1 L/NP −1 OTH
Western Victoria
ALP 2L/NP 2GRN 1
ALP 1L/NP 1ONP 2GRN 1
+2 ONP −1 ALP −1 L/NP
Total
ALP 15L/NP 14ONP 1GRN 4OTH 6
ALP 10L/NP 12ONP 10GRN 8
+9 ONP +4 GRN −2 L/NP −5 ALP −6 OTH